EBSCO Projects 4 to 6 Percent Increase in Serials Prices for 2012

EBSCO recently announced its serials price projections for academic and academic/medical libraries to be "in the range of 4 to 6 percent" for 2012—the same increase that EBSCO had projected for 2011. The estimate in its report [PDF] was based on recent information EBSCO had received from small and large publishers, and historical price data.

In LJ's Periodicals Price Survey 2011, published in May and coauthored by the University of Arizona's Stephen Bosch and EBSCO's Kittie Henderson and Heather Klusendorf, periodical prices for academic libraries (for titles in EBSCO's Academic Search Premier) were projected at 7 to 9 percent in 2012—somewhat above the latest EBSCO projections.

The data for the LJ periodicals pricing article is assembled in late January of each year. In January, libraries are reconciling their budgets and publishers are still totaling their orders for the year. While the LJ serials pricing article noted that "2010 price increases were lower across the board than in previous years," the data collected in January encouraged the three authors "to veer on the side of caution, informing librarians that a 7 to 9 percent increase was not unrealistic," they told LJ.

The current EBSCO projection is based on actual 2012 publisher pricing and detailed responses from a survey of publishers conducted in late summer. The authors believe that "[c]ombining the LJ periodicals pricing article and the EBSCO price projection report could be the best way that librarians can plan for what's ahead-and, perhaps, see their future."

A two-year trend of flat increases may be a good sign for 2013. "It seems that publishers may be listening to librarians who are increasingly vocal about the need to bridge the gap between reduced budgets and increasing subscription prices," said Bosch.

Nevertheless, as libraries struggle with budget cuts, even these lower projected price increases could mean more cancelled periodicals. As reported in LJ's Periodicals Price Survey, 34 percent of 450 respondents to EBSCO Information Services' 2011 Library Collections and Budgeting Trends Survey—mostly academic libraries—reported budget cuts for 2011, and 44 percent expected cuts in the next fiscal year. The migration from print—or print plus online—to online only will continue in 2012, and subscriptions in all formats will be subject to cancellation to fit within budget parameters.